All of East Tennessee is under a winter storm watch, which was issued Sunday afternoon by the National Weather Service at Morristown. The NWS is calling for 2-4 inches of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning.
More specifically, the NWS is calling for 2-3 inches of snow in Scott and Morgan counties. The storm watch takes effect at 4 a.m. Tuesday and continues through 6 p.m. Just to the west, the NWS at Nashville has much of Middle Tennessee under a winter weather advisory from 1 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday, calling for 1-3 inches of snow.
Modeling data continues to indicate the potential for significant snow accumulations declining. Most of the global forecast models now show little in the way of accumulation here on the northern Cumberland Plateau. The European model — the most reliable of the models — began that trend last night. Now the GFS has jumped on board, with its latest run showing only about an inch of snow in Scott County. That’s a big change from this morning, when it was showing 3-5 inches of snow across the northern plateau.
The higher-resolution mesoscale models have also shown this trend, to varying degrees. The NAM model is showing 1-3 inches of snow for parts of the northern plateau, but it is much skimpier with coverage than it has been. Just a few hours ago, it was showing widespread 4-5 inch totals for the region. The higher-resolution version of the NAM shows stunningly little precipitation, with virtually no accumulation (less than an inch) for the northern plateau.
This trend continues my earlier thinking, which is that we might not see more than an inch of snow.
The short-range HRRR model is showing 1-3 inches of accumulation, so it’s not agreeing with the NAM or the GFS just yet. And the SREF, another of the short-range models operated by the National Weather Service, is also beefier (or juicier?) than the NAM, GFS and Euro.
There’s still time to watch this winter storm threat unfold; we’re more than 24 hours away from the onset of precipitation. At this point, though, I tend to believe we’ll see only minor accumulation here on the northern plateau. That doesn’t mean we won’t see travel impacts; temperatures will plunge rapidly Monday night into Tuesday morning, so some slick spots on roadways — especially secondary roadways, and bridges and overpasses — seems probable. I’m not convinced we’ll see widespread issues, but the possibility is there.