Now that colder weather has finally arrived in the Cumberlands, the question is when will it snow? 

There could be some snowflakes flying in the next couple of weeks, but whether there will be anything substantial to track remains to be seen.

Today’s 12z GFS shows no temperature warmer than 52 degrees over the next 15 days, with lows in the upper teens. In between, there will be plenty of colder days, but will the cold air cooperate with moisture to create wintry mischief? 

A fresh wave of cold air will arrive early next week; the National Weather Service’s forecast for Oneida shows highs only in the mid 30s on Monday and in the upper 30s on Tuesday. Then temperatures will begin to warm ahead of our next weather-maker, which will arrive Thursday night. 

Colder temperatures may settle in again as that system departs next weekend. That will lead up to the next system, which is the one that has been hyped within the weather community. A broadcast meteorologist in the Knoxville market said earlier this week that East Tennessee’s first snowfall will occur between Jan. 9-14, an apparent reference to this system. What happens will depend on the track the storm takes. If it takes the correct path, which would be south of Tennessee, there will be sufficient cold air for the storm to tap to create a wintry scenario. But, for now, models take it far enough north and west to warm temperatures to around 50 here in the Cumberlands, with snow for areas to our west and rain for those of us in Tennessee.

But that won’t be the last chance for snow within the next two week timeframe. Taken verbatim, the 12z run of the GFS model shows cold air rushing back in as that next week system departs, then another system moves into the region Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. Right now, the GFS shows borderline temperatures for our region as this system impacts us, but there could be at least some snow in the equation.